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Introduction

A lot of fans bet on football games almost every weekend, but only a few of them ensure that the matches are analysed carefully. They analyse the league board, probably check out current scores and then proceed to betting. 

However, expert users, coaches and agents have a different thought process. They go deeper into statistics, tactical approaches, details, and thought process. This is simply the reason why smart football predictions use much analysis as an advantage.

In this article, we will go through: 

• Ways to understand a football match outside of the scoreboard.
• The reasons why statistics are important. 
• Ways of combining tactical methods with actual numbers. 
• Popular errors that are committed by fans.
• Ways in which match analysis helps  to enhance betting. 

Step 1: Have the Mindset of a Coach

A lot of fans talk about how this team is strong and that team is weak but as a coach you have to ask detailed questions like:

• What is the attack strategy of Team A?
• Will Team B I have the capacity to defend?
• Who comes out victorious in the midfield battle?
• Are there any errors on the wings?

For example: During the 2022 World Cup, Argentina fought against Saudi Arabia simply because Saudi Arabia was at the high side and spoilt the progress of Argentina. Though the scoreboard portrayed shock defeat, the tactics gave an explanation for it. 

Step 2: Make Use of the Proper Statistics 

It is normal to get low scores in football, so that’s why local statistics would not give the full explanations. Rather, you should concentrate on the following:

• Expected Goals: These are the quality of opportunities that are created or lost. 
• Passes per Defensive Action: This explains the manner in which a team pushes ahead.
• Creation of Huge Opportunities: This gives more details than the total shots. 
• Work Force of Set-Piece: Free kicks are usually the determining factors of matches that are tight. 
• Passing Networks: This explains the top dog in midfield distribution.

For instance: During the Premier League in 2021 and 2022, Tottenham scored lower than Arsenal but had higher expected goals for each shot. Experts that analysed and saw this, ended up forecasting a solid end for the Spurs.

Step 3: Forms of Players and Matches 

• Major attackers: If a striker is in form, they can transform a half chance into an actual goal. 
• Defensive battles: When a weak full-back battles a top winger, that is considered an ill fitted match. 
• Suspensions and injuries: If a team has an unavailable holding midfielder, that can be a lot worse than having an unavailable striker. 

For example: During the period that Liverpool didn’t have Virgil van Dijk in 2020/2021, there was a huge breakdown in their defense. The smart bettors that monitored his unavailability were able to avoid making a mistake.  

Step 4: It is Important to Have Context 

Having context is as important as having numbers: 

• Home versus away: Few teams tend to succeed at home like Galatasaray in Turkey. 
• Motivation: A mid-table side might not really put any effort but a relegation team will put even more effort.
• Overload of schedule: Having Champions League on a Wednesday might have an impact on Saturday’s league games.
• Weather and field setup: The efforts of passing teams can be slowed down by either rain or a lot of grass on the field. 

Step 5: Combine Both Quantitative and Qualitative Analysis

• Qualitative: This is based on what you can see like efforts, the form of a team and their pressing style.
• Quantitative: This is based on what you can measure and this includes statistics like possession, expected goals, and final passes.  

None of the above can do on their own. They both need to be together in order to give proper clarity.

Point to note: Open up a statistics sheet while looking out for highlights. Ensure that your eye test aligns with the numbers.

Tips for Match Analysis  

1. Avoid depending on just the final score: If your expected goals are low, a play that is poor could be disclosed by a 1- 0 win. 
2. Monitor movements: You have to check if a team is coming up or failing every week. 
3. Do your research on head-to-head accounts: It is important to check styles. 
4. Check out substitutes: A game that is late can be worn by solid benches. 

For example: Real Madrid usually has late wins in the Champions League due to the details of their bench. Having this knowledge helps users to live bet. 

Popular Errors Made in Match Analysis

• Putting possession as a priority.
• Overlooking solid defense statics due to promising attackers. 
• Not thinking about the tiredness that comes with travelling. 
• Thinking that previous form is an assurance that future outcomes might be favourable. 

Betting Responsibly

Note that analysing a football match makes your bets smarter, but even the most accurate analysis cannot foresee every outcome of a match.

• You need a budget for every bet. 
• Have an open mind when it comes to unforeseen circumstances. 
• When your analysis is wrong, avoid chasing after the losses. 
• Don’t forget that the aim of betting is to have fun rather than make money. 

FAQs

Q1: Is it only experts that analyse football matches?

Q2: What is considered the key statistics?

Q3: Do I just watch games or use data?

Q4: Can match analysis ensure that your bet is successful?

Q5: Which leagues can be analyzed easily?

Conclusion

One thing to note is that an analysis of football matches helps to take betting from random guesses into a working format.

Freeforebet aims to provide users with proper understanding instead of just predictions. The more analysis you make the better your wages are and the more you enjoy the activity. 

When next you watch a match, don’t settle for calculating the goals only instead look out for the midfield duels, monitor the mounting pressure and ask necessary questions. That is how you do analysis.